It is expected that global temperatures will increase about 2 to 6 degrees Celsius, hence precipitation will change.
Speaking in Nairobi, Kenya at a Climate Change workshop for African journalists, Paul Desanker, a professor of Geography at Penn State University in the United States of America said changes in climate could be extreme while natural disasters could get worse.
In his paper entitled "Welcome my world" Prof. Desanker said "Climate change is not a simple issue with easy sound bites."
"Africa is connected to the global climate system, so important to understand the bigger issue of climate change at all scales – national/regional, Africa and globally," he said at the November 24-26 workshop which was organised by the United Nations Environmental Programme Africa Regional Office in Nairobi.
" Climate change as predicted to change over the next 100 years, will seriously impact everything you can think of," Prof. Desanker said, adding " Many effects will be new and will require deliberate actions to adapt and cope."
As result of these climatic changes, sea levels are expected to rise.
Recent increases in temperatures have led to the land and Oceans becoming warm, moisture getting trapped in ice and this has resulted in drying of rest of the world.
This also culminated into serious droughts in Africa, prompting Africans to migrate north and east, re-populating Asia, Australia,
North Africa and Europe to form modern man
"Now, we are talking about +2 to +6 degrees Celsius global temperature increase over the next 100 years, you can imagine how serious the impacts can be," said Malawian-born Prof. Desanker.
Prof. Desanker pointed out that as an international problem, there are common but
differentiated obligations upon different groups of countries.
"Climate is but one of several environmental problems – land degradation, desertification, erosion, loss of productivity and poor soils," he said.
Vulnerability is context-specific and depends on local environmental, social and economic factors
Climate change has promoted changes in precipitation patterns
Some of the highlights of potential direct impacts of climate change has seen the melting of glaciers melting while some inland lakes like Lake Chad have been drying up.
Other effects of climate change have led to extreme temperature – heat waves, cold spells like in Europe last year resulting in excessive deaths over short period of time (15,000 people died in a few weeks of summer of 2003 in France alone) while cold spells – in parts of Africa causing deaths.
Ecological Effects
Prof. Desanker said Climate change has also witnessed changes in phenology (biological time). It has led to earlier flowering of plants and budding of trees and earlier laying of eggs in birds.
There has also been risk of asynchronous timing of events between species with tight synchronization requirements e.g. late arrival of migratory birds after peak of food availability has passed.
Other ecological effects have been changes in water flow and level leading to loss of aquatic habitats, riparian forests, recreational opportunities, eutrophication,
etc. Would lead to habitat loss, species loss.
It has also led to increased pests and disease – especially in areas previously too cold: frost or cold spells kill off insects and other germ agents (e.g. grasshoppers?)
Agricultural Effects
Prof. Desanker says there have been remarked growing season changes – most immediately serious for many areas that rely on rain-fed agriculture and subsistence farming with rainfall becoming increasingly erratic.
Local Case Studies
Prof. Desanker says findings by scientists indicate local people recognize there are changes in climate that are unusual. "They are experimenting with adaptations e.g. staggered planting to ‘catch’ the growing season," he says.
Climate change is having an impact on ecosystems and will alter regional agricultural systems – specifics will vary.
Thermal regime expand northwards: significant reduction of boreal and Arctic ecosystems.. It is envisaged that increased variability in rain-fed
production will result in reductions in potential cereal production in continents like Africa. In developed countries, expanded land at high latitudes would increase production potential.
Role of past trends
"Past not adequate to guide possible future trends. We are Likely to see new threats through dramatic
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